Thursday, August 30, 2012

Political Geography Model Points to Romney Victory

An electoral map of the 2012 election to come?


A political science-geography model of the 2012 Presidential Election between President Barack Obama and former Governor Mitt Romney states that Romney will win the electoral college 320-218.  The geography of the model depicts certain shifts from the classic Bush Red State-Blue State model as well as a partial reversal of the Obama tide.

Romney's projected victory will be, according to the model, due to what I would call a Paul Ryan-Rust Belt effect.  The campaign's emphasis on the recession as well as Ryan's Mid West appeal seems to spill over as Bush/McCain Indiana, Bush/Obama Ohio, Gore/Bush/Obama Iowa, and Gore/Kerry/Obama Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania all go for Romney.  In the model Romney is able to retake the Bush southern states of Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida which went for Obama in 2008.  Romney's New England moderatism also wins him soft libertarian New Hampshire.

Obama is projected to use his Hispanic advantage to win Nevada (Bush/Obama) and New Mexico (Gore/Bush/Obama). as well as a congressional district in Maine.  Obama's cores are the liberal Northwest, the liberal Pacific Coasts, Hispanic southwest, and Black hubs in Michigan and Illinois.

Interesting note on the model:   The model successfully predicts every Electoral College victor since 1980 but it has not been in use since 1980, it was made to accurately project the winner of earlier contests.  Geoblogger Justin Holman has the breakdown.

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