Saturday, September 13, 2008

Old Farmer's Almanac Predicts Global Cooling

The American classic Old Farmer's Almanac is predicting the next few decades will be colder due to Global Cooling. The scientists who made the climate and weather section of the almanac predict sunspot activity and its effect on ocean currents.

Global Warming, Climate Change, and Global Cooling are very complex issues which cannot be decided on by just citing a few studies. During the heating period in the 1930s and 1940s there were studies that stated global warming would benefit mankind while melting most Arctic ice by 1950. During the following cooling period up until the 1970s academic and doomsayers the American East Coast and most of Europe would freeze to death in the upcoming ice age. Recently scientists were predicting global warming would lead to super hurricanes; though now studies predict hurricanes will be weaker. Science, data, and models change. These studies probably were the best we could create at the time but we can do better now.

We all need to be rational while trying to create better models so there is less disagreement. Also we need to reasonably weigh countermeasures and pros and cons of any outcome. Going religious on the issue only harms science and the world. Case in point: British vandals were found not guilty damaging a power station because it was an act of self defense against global warming.

2 comments:

Jason said...

Hi Catholicgauze,

I'm intrigued by your claim that during "the heating period in the 1930s and 1940s there were studies that stated global warming would benefit mankind while melting most Arctic ice by 1950." Could you provide some references? This is the first I have heard of this, and I follow the issue quite closely.

Also, regarding the cooling claims of the seventies, my understanding is that the National Academy of Sciences published a report that basically said, "This cooling trend needs more study before we can make any solid conclusions." This was taken by a couple of popular magazines (notably National Geographic and Newsweek) and spun into the coming ice age articles. Are you aware of any academic journal articles that predicted a coming ice age? I'm not trying to be argumentative--and I readily concede that NG and Newsweek got way ahead of themselves--but I haven't heard of any peer reviewed studies claiming this.

Best Regards,
Jason

Catholicgauze said...

Hey Jason,
Just getting over a bad cold. I'll have the information soon. I'm not ignoring you, just lazy sick.