Sunday, February 25, 2007

Insurgency in Iran

All the news dealing with the War on Terrorism currently is focused on Iraq. One of the major issues in Iraq is how Iran is funding and equipping anti-Iraqi and anti-American militias. However, Iran is currently engaged against anti-regime forces.

News on this insurgency started earlier this month when Iranian military police engaged in a fire fight against several tribes in central Iran. The tribes and the religious government have long been in a "back burner" war for years. Then in Zahedan, in western Iran, a series of raids were conducted against police. These were quickly followed by a series of bomb blast which killed police and state-allied terrorists. There have even been possible attempts on President Ahmadinejad's life.

Things have really begun to pick up. The latest news is an Iranian helicopter was shot down in Northeast Iran. The Iranian military in turn has killed 17 anti-regime fighters.

The recent problems can be tied to the Iranian nuclear program, Iran's involvement in Iraq, and the Iran-United States Cold War. The United States has realized a direct land war in Iran would be a long, bloddy affair. Instead, the best way to institute regime change is via indirect methods. These methods include encouraging student discontent and reaching understandings with anti-Mullah forces in Iran.

Iran is unique compared to other countries in the Muslim world. Iran is like Turkey in the sense that it has managed to resist complete Arabization of its culture. Many youths, but certainly not all, enjoy Western-lifestyles and pirating MTV and going to raves is the cool thing to do. They are nationalistic enough to support Iran over America in case of war but many do not wish to see that happen.

A direct attack would lose many anti-Mullah Iranians. So instead the United States is conducting a indirect conflict against Iran to return relations back to a level similar to the era of the Shahs. The key is to unite non-Persians and youth into common cause.

1 comment:

subadei said...

I agree, despite some of the frenetic proclamations that Bush can't wait to wage war on Iran it's very unlikely to happen.

The wildcard here, of course, is containing Israel in light of Irans increasing willingness to ignore the toothless UN's demands that they cease their program. An Israeli premption would be damn near as bad as a US attack. Let's hope Olmert can outlast the exceedingly erratic Ahmadinejad.