The summer and fall of 2006 was good to those who oppose reform in Lebanon. Hezbollah survived a war against Israel and the Republican Party, seen as a strong opponent of Hezbollah and its backer Iran, lost the midterm elections.
So the those who wish to challenge the recent move to free Lebanon from Syria/Iran/Hezbollah's influence are under siege. At the forefront is Hezbollah's effort to stage a "democratic coup" in which the government steps down and all investigation into the Syrian murder of former PM Rafiq Hariri stopped. Hezbollah currently controls the southern part of Lebanon and is being protected by the United Nations which refuses to follow its own resolution and disarm the terror group.
Not to be outdone by the tri-Shia alliance, al Qaeda is opening up shop in Lebanon. al Qaeda has promised to overthrow the Lebanese government and fight Hezbollah at the same time. As it has proven in Iraq, al Qaeda does not need to be big or have major support to wreck havoc.
So here is the game board: the Christians, Sunnis, and Druze for the most part want to move beyond the civil war to make Lebanon better off. The Shia are being led into another war by Iran and Syria. Foreign, Wahhabized Sunnis want to expand the Afghanistan/Israel/Iraq jihad.
If any of these players makes a "wrong" move expect the United States, Europe, United Nations, and Israel to get involved. Israel has learned that a remote, soft war does not work and would likely go in full force. The United States would probably send in a strike force or two to conduct raids. The United Nations will be paralyzed due to Russian and Chinese interference.
Welcome to the twenty-first century!